New Build Market Review 2006 to Dec 2018

By: LSL Land & New Homes


The New Build Market Review shows the overall, top level status of the New Build property market for the last decade, to the end of December 2018.

Transaction Volumes (updated quarterly)

The volume of *transactions following the 2009 housing market crash was impaired for several years but in recent years levels are now beginning to exceed pre-2009 volumes. (*A New Build transaction for reporting purposes is defined as a completed, full-price property sale). The volume of transactions for June 2018 exceeded that of all preceding months since at least Jan 2007. Overall there has been a slow but steady increase in the number of transactions since ~2010. Despite peaks in June 2017 and June 2018, transaction volumes have plateaued and stabilised.

Transaction volumes by month to end of Dec 2018

Market Value (updated quarterly / annually)

Following the 2009 housing market crash house prices recovered and the overall monthly value of the market at December 2017 was almost double the value of the market in 2007. (In the graph below the total value of all transactions are listed by month from Jan 2007 to the close of Dec 2017. Units are in billions.) The market value for June 2018 exceeded that of preceding months making June 2018 the best month in the last decade. Overall, despite the peaks of June 2017 and June 2018, market value has plateaued and stabilised.

Market value by month to end Dec 2018

When the total annual value of the market is viewed by year from 2007 to 2018 there was a reduced rate of increase in 2017, with signs of recovery in 2018. Data from 2018 is now stable and is not expected to change substantially.

Market value by year to end Dec 2018

Year by year regional results (updated annually)

Regionally there have been consistent house price increases in all areas (excluding flats). London has seen some year on year volatility.

Average purchase price by region and year 2007-2018 excl flats

On a regional basis London and the South East have led the way in terms of the number of post-recovery transactions recorded on a year by year basis. (The graph below shows values from 2007 to 2018). In 2017 and 2018 the South East out performed London, with London showing reduced activity since 2017.

Transaction volumes by region and year 2007-2018

When the value of all transactions by region is considered London has outperformed all other regions, with an overall value in 2018 just in below £10 billion. The value of transactions for London has seen year on year reduced since 2017. All other regions saw slight increases.

Transaction values by region and year 2007 - 2018

The proportionate sales volumes graph below shows a recent transfer of activities from London to the other regions. Despite year on year volatilities the overall trend is that London has seen consistent market share increases since at least 2007. If London based pricing is cyclic the region could be poised for a rebound. (See also New build sales: The big picture).

Proportionate transaction volumes by year 1999 to 2018

Average property prices by type of property, by month (updated quarterly)

Average property prices for each major type of property (houses, semi-detached houses, terraced houses and flats) have all showed consistent increases since 2009 and the trend seems likely to continue. There has been a significantly reduced rate of increase for flats, with detached and terraced property types showing slightly reduced rates of increase. Semi-detached properties seem to be bucking this trend with an more stable rate of price increase.

Average purchase prices for detached properties Jan 2007 to end Dec 2018

Average purchase prices for semi detached properties Jan 2007 to end Dec 2018

Average purchase prices for terraced properties Jan 2007 to end Dec 2018

Average purchase prices for flats Jan 2007 to end Dec 2018

The Consumer Price Index for 2008-2018 as an indicator of underlying inflation levels is shown below. There have been steady reductions in the CPI over the last year that look set to continue:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 06-2019 to 05-2019

Data for the above has been obtained from official Government sources including the ONS.

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