New Build Market Review 2006 to Mar 2018

By: LSL Land & New Homes


The New Build Market Review shows the overall, top level status of the New Build property market for the last decade, to the end of March 2018.

Transaction Volumes (updated quarterly)

The volume of *transactions following the 2009 housing market crash was impaired for several years but in recent years levels are now beginning to exceed pre-2009 volumes. (*A New Build transaction for reporting purposes is defined as a completed, full-price property sale). The volume of transactions for June exceeded that of preceding months and this made June the best month in 2017 to date. However, the trend did not continue for much of the remainder of the 2017. There was a rebound in Dec 2017. Overall there has been a slow but steady increase in the number of transactions since ~2010. Since the peak in June 2017 transaction volumes have plateaued. Time will tell in terms of how this pans out as the picture for 2018 unfolds.

Transaction volumes over time to end of Mar 2018

Market Value (updated quarterly / annually)

Following the 2009 housing market crash house prices recovered and the overall monthly value of the market at December 2017 was almost double the value of the market in 2007. (In the graph below the total value of all transactions are listed by month from Jan 2007 to the close of Dec 2017. Units are in billions.) The market value for June 2017 exceeded that of preceding months making June 2017 the best month in the last decade. Since the peak in June 2017 market value has plateaued. As with transaction volumes, we will see how this pans out as the picture for 2018 unfolds.

Market value by month to end mar 2018

When the total annual value of the market is viewed by year from 2007 to 2017 there was a reduced rate of increase in 2017. Data from 2017 is now stable and is not expected to change.

Market value by year to end dec 2017 w820

Year by year regional results (updated annually)

Regionally there have been consistent price increases in all areas when all property types other than flats are considered. London has seen year on volatility.

Average new build house price for all types by region and year 2007 2017 w820

On a regional basis London and the South East have led the way in terms of the number of post-recovery transactions recorded on a year by year basis. (The graph below shows values from 2007 to 2017). In 2017 the South East out performed London.

Transaction volumes by region and year 2007 2017 w820

When the value of all transactions by region is considered London has outperformed all other regions, with an overall value in 2017 just in excess of £10 billion. The value of transactions for London was slightly reduced when compared with 2017. All other regions saw slight increases.

Transaction values by region and year 2007 2017 w820

The proportionate sales volumes graph below shows a recent transfer of activities from London to the other regions. Despite year on year volatilities the overall trend is that London has seen consistent market share increases since at least 2007. (See also New build sales: The big picture).

Proportionate analysis by region and year

Average property prices by type of property, by month (updated quarterly)

Average property prices for each major type of property (houses, semi-detached houses, terraced houses and flats) have all showed consistent increases since 2009 and the trend seems likely to continue. There has been a significantly reduced rate of increase for detached properties, with flats and terraced property types showing slightly reduced rates of increase. Semi-detached properties seem to be bucking this trend with an increased rate of price increase.

Average purchase prices for detached properties jan 2007 to end mar 2018

Average purchase prices for semis jan 2007 to end mar 2018

Average purchase prices for terraced properties jan 2007 to end mar 2018

Average purchase prices for flats jan 2007 to end mar 2018

The Consumer Price Index for 2008-2018 as an indicator of underlying inflation levels is shown below. Following reductions from Jan 2018 the CPI has been steadily increasing since June 2018:

Consumer Price Index 2008 2018

Data for the above has been obtained from official Government sources including the ONS.

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